The global security architecture has entered a dangerous "gray zone" as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) officially expired last month without a formal replacement. Today, the US State Department reiterated its desire for a "modernized" treaty that includes tactical nuclear weapons and addresses China’s growing arsenal. Russia, meanwhile, has stated it is no longer bound by any symmetrical obligations but will voluntarily maintain current limits—for now.
The Trump administration has criticized the original New START for leaving the US at an "intolerable disadvantage" regarding tactical nuclear systems. Washington is pushing for a multilateral framework that brings Beijing to the negotiating table, a move China has consistently rejected. In the absence of a treaty, the US Senate has begun expert hearings on expanding the American nuclear triad to ensure a credible deterrent against the "dual threat" of Moscow and Beijing.
Despite the lack of a formal treaty, informal talks have taken place in Abu Dhabi to establish a "six-month understanding" to avoid a total arms race. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned today that Moscow’s restraint is contingent on the US not exceeding current deployment limits. The atmosphere remains poisoned by the conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s alleged support for Iran’s "Shadow Fleet" used to circumvent international oil sanctions.
NATO headquarters hosted a symposium on Tuesday specifically targeting Russia's Shadow Fleet, which provides the financial lifeline for Putin's ongoing war efforts. The US and its allies are looking for legal and operational ways to constrain these vessels, which have become a primary tool for Moscow to maintain economic stability. The intersection of the Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis has made any meaningful arms control breakthrough nearly impossible.
As of March 25, the world is effectively in the first period in decades without a legally binding nuclear arms limit between the two superpowers. President Trump has signaled he prefers a "deal of the century" for nuclear stability but will not settle for "weak" previous agreements. Meanwhile, Russia has publicly proposed a one-year voluntary cap, which Washington has yet to formally accept, leaving the global strategic equilibrium in a state of high uncertainty.
Informal "strategic stability" talks in Abu Dhabi fail to produce a binding agreement.
HISTORY The New START treaty was originally signed in 2010 and extended in 2021. However, Russia suspended its participation in February 2023 following the invasion of Ukraine and the breakdown of relations with the Biden administration.
February 17, 2026: US proposes multilateral talks to address the "breakout growth" of China's nukes.