Ford Motor Company confirmed a projected $1 billion hit to its 2026 earnings due to a series of fires at the Novelis aluminium plant in Oswego, New York. The facility is a critical supplier of the lightweight aluminium used in Ford's high-profit F-Series pickup trucks, and the disruption has severely hampered production schedules.
The Oswego hot mill is now expected to restart operations in late Q2 2026, pushed back from earlier estimates of a December 2025 recovery. Ford CEO Jim Farley described the situation as a "$2 billion headwind," which includes both the lost production and the increased costs of sourcing aluminium from alternative global suppliers.
To mitigate the impact, Ford has redeployed workers from its F-150 Lightning EV lines to support the production of internal combustion (ICE) and hybrid F-150s. The company is pivoting away from the all-electric Lightning model, which will be replaced by a new extended-range EV model as Ford chases higher-return opportunities.
Despite the setback, Ford aims to increase F-Series production by 60,000 units later this year once the supply chain stabilizes. CFO Sherry House noted that while the first half of 2026 will be difficult, the company expects a stronger second half as the Novelis mill returns to full capacity.
The disruption highlights the vulnerability of the "just-in-time" supply chain for specialized materials like automotive-grade aluminium. Ford is currently paying premium freight and tariffs to secure enough material to keep its Dearborn and Kansas City assembly plants running at limited capacity.
SUMMARY
Novelis Oswego plant fire delays F-150 aluminium supply until late Q2 2026.
Ford estimates a $1 billion impact on annual earnings due to the supply disruption.
Production of the F-150 Lightning EV is being phased out in favor of hybrids.
Ford is sourcing aluminium globally, incurring high tariffs and shipping costs.
Plans remain in place to recover 60,000 units of lost production by year-end.
HISTORY
The Novelis Oswego facility is one of the largest aluminium rolling mills in the world and has been a primary partner for Ford since the 2015 introduction of the aluminium-bodied F-150. A major fire in late 2025 initially crippled the hot mill, followed by a second smaller fire in early 2026.
2014: Ford transitions F-150 to all-aluminium body, partnering with Novelis.
Nov 2025: First major fire at Oswego plant shuts down hot mill.
Dec 2025: Ford reduces shifts at truck plants due to material shortages.
Feb 10, 2026: Ford earnings call reveals $2 billion total headwind from supply issues.
Feb 12, 2026: Novelis confirms restart pushed to June 2026.